Figure two illustrates a results chain from a logic model and its related basic theory of change.
On the left-hand side of the figure, there are set of five boxes arranged vertically, representing the results chain. The boxes identify the elements normally found in a results chain or logic model and are, from bottom to top, outputs, immediate outcomes, first intermediate outcome, second intermediate outcome and ultimate outcomes. The boxes are connected with arrows that point upward, from the lower boxes to those above them, demonstrating the movement in the results chainâ€â€from outputs, to immediate outcomes, to the first intermediate outcome, to the second intermediate outcome, to the ultimate outcomes. The boxes are also connected with a second set of arrows that point downward, from the higher boxes to those below, demonstrating the iterative nature between the levels of the results chain. In each box, there is a results statement appropriate to the link in the results chain.
On the right-hand side of the figure, there are four causal link boxes, representing the basic theory of change. These boxes are arranged vertically so that each aligns with one of the spaces between the five boxes in the results chain. Each causal link box is also connected to one of the upward-facing arrows between the boxes on the results chain, demonstrating that the causal links are the change that happens between the boxes or levels in the results chain. Each causal link box contains a description of what happens between the levels of the results chain. There is also a description of the causal links, labelled "The Outline of the Intervention Theory of Change."
Each of the casual links is labelled, to demonstrate the degree of influence that the program has over it. The lowest causal link (between the outputs and immediate outcomes) is labelled with "DI," indicating that the program has direct influence over this causal link. The next two causal links (between immediate outcomes and the first intermediate outcome and between the first and second intermediate outcomes) are labelled with "I," indicating that the program has a degree of influence. The final causal link, between the second intermediate outcome and ultimate outcomes, is labelled with "O," indicating that it is outside the influence of the program.
Return to Figure 2. A Basic Theory of Change for Enhancing Results-Based Management in Organizations